FAO Food Price Index, September 2026; up 1.5% month on month.
Released 2 October 2026FAO forecast for 2026; second-largest harvest on record.
Released 2 October 2026People across 47 food-crisis countries and territories in 2025.
Global Report on Food Crises 2026Read the units: These figures describe different things: a price index, a production forecast and acute food insecurity in assessed crisis settings.
What each indicator can tell you
| Indicator | Best use | What it cannot prove alone |
|---|---|---|
| FAO Food Price Index | International commodity-price direction | Local grocery inflation or food availability |
| Retail food inflation | Consumer food-basket changes in one country | A physical shortage in a specific market |
| Crop forecast | Expected harvest and revisions | Equal access or affordability |
| Stocks and stocks-to-use ratio | Aggregate inventory buffers | Whether stocks are accessible locally |
| IPC food insecurity analysis | Severity in assessed areas | Global physical production |
Latest official context
FAO's 2 October 2026 release said the Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September. Its cereal brief forecast 2,979 million tonnes of global cereal production in 2026, the second-largest harvest on record, while cereal trade outlook was lowered amid Black Sea shipping constraints. A large harvest and tighter trade routes can coexist.
The 2026 Global Report on Food Crises reported 266 million people across 47 food-crisis countries and territories experienced high levels of acute food insecurity in 2025. This is not a measure of global food stocks.
Primary sources
- FAO Food Price Index release, 2 October 2026
- FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief
- Global Report on Food Crises 2026
Start with our food prices versus shortages explainer and 2026 cereal outlook.